Background and the Estimate Baseline

 

It is currently pretty well established, that Mars can have liquid water now, has had flowing water in the past with most of the Meridiany Planum rocks to be sandstones of sedimentary nature.

The main planet-historical scenarios for evolution of life on Mars include the possibility of macroscopic life, although it is the scenario considered to be an unlikely one.

Our goal is to find out what is the lower limit of the probability for such scenario, since it is going to be the baseline for our hypotheses reevaluation technique.

 

The expert estimate for the probability value is in order of magnitude 1/1000(D. Schulze-Makuch, L. N. Irwin, 2005, private communication).

 

Using 3-sigma rule, we obtain then for the lower limit of probability value 10^-9.